Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Getafe 2-5 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 48.6% | 32.2% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.5% | 26.0% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 22.9% | 41.8% | 18.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GetafeDDLWL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FC LuganoWWWLW
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
GetafeFC Lugano
55.6Attack76.2
55.6Defence66.7
44.4Form81.0
53.1Power75.5
1.16xG1.91