Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gernika · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gernika 4-0 Llanera
Original prediction
Gernika
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 50.8% | 44.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.7% | 28.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.4% | 27.4% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Gernika
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Gernika has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GernikaWDDDD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LlaneraLLDWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GernikaLlanera
50.0Attack33.3
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form0.0
50.0Power23.7
1.59xG1.05