Gernikavs
Amorebieta
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gernika · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gernika 1-2 Amorebieta
Original prediction
Gernika
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.8% | 50.1% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 30.8% | 26.8% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 28.4% | 23.2% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Gernika
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Gernika has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80