Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Germany W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Germany W 2-1 Japan W
Original prediction
Germany W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 53.4% | 40.3% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.8% | 27.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.9% | 31.9% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Germany W
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Germany W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Germany WWWWDW
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Japan WWDWWW
GF 17 · GA 3 · avg 3.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Germany WJapan W
100.0Attack58.3
33.3Defence62.5
100.0Form50.0
80.3Power55.1
1.59xG1.55