Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Germany · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Germany 2-0 Serbia
Original prediction
Germany
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 79.8% | 51.2% | -28.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.98 | 13.6% | 24.8% | 11.2 pts |
| Away | 14.41 | 6.6% | 24.0% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Germany
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Germany has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GermanyLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SerbiaLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
GermanySerbia
16.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
16.7Form0.0
36.5Power26.7
1.40xG1.00