Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Germany · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Germany 0-1 Greece
Original prediction
Germany
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 66.8% | 41.6% | -25.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.99 | 19.0% | 26.8% | 7.7 pts |
| Away | 6.66 | 14.2% | 31.7% | 17.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Germany
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Germany has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GermanyDWWWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GreeceWLDDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GermanyGreece
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power80.3
1.10xG1.25