Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ukraine · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Georgia 0-0 Ukraine
Original prediction
Ukraine
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 34.7% | 33.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 30.6% | 30.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 34.7% | 37.1% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.07 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Ukraine
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Ukraine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GeorgiaLWDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
UkraineWLWWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GeorgiaUkraine
0.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power80.3
1.02xG1.21