Georgiavs
Northern Ireland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Georgia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland
Original prediction
Georgia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.8% | 45.1% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.7% | 27.5% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.5% | 27.5% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Georgia
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Georgia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20