Geoje Citizenvs
Pyeongtaek Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K4 League · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Geoje Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Geoje Citizen 3-0 Pyeongtaek Citizen
Original prediction
Geoje Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 57.8% | 58.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.5% | 21.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 20.7% | 20.1% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Geoje Citizen
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Geoje Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60