Geoje Citizenvs
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K4 League · 10/25/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Geoje Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Geoje Citizen 4-0 Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Original prediction
Geoje Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.5% | 42.3% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 26.7% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 4.10 | 21.9% | 31.0% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Geoje Citizen
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Geoje Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.40/0.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40