Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gent · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gent 1-0 Aarhus
Original prediction
Gent
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.8% | 42.2% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 23.3% | 29.1% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.9% | 28.7% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Gent
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Gent has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GentWWDWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AarhusWWDWL
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GentAarhus
27.8Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
55.6Form50.0
59.1Power50.0
1.17xG0.94