Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genoa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genoa 1-0 Venezia
Original prediction
Genoa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 43.4% | 44.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.1% | 26.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 27.5% | 29.0% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Genoa
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Genoa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GenoaLWLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VeneziaWLLLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GenoaVenezia
23.8Attack28.6
38.1Defence23.8
19.0Form14.3
30.6Power26.7
1.42xG1.06