Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genoa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Genoa are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (DWL), averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Modena are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (WLW), averaging 4.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 6 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Genoa hold a 30.6-point power-rating edge (62.6 v 32.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.2% in the Coppa Italia, while Genoa holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Genoa
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Genoa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.67/1.33
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 4.00/0.67