Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genoa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Genoa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ascoli are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Genoa hold a 47.2-point power-rating edge (62.6 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.4% in the Coppa Italia, while Genoa holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Genoa
Probability
57.2%
Model confidence
10.4%
Genoa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60