Gençlerbirliği S.K.vs
Kasımpaşa
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kasımpaşa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa
Original prediction
Kasımpaşa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.0% | 35.0% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.1% | 27.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.9% | 37.2% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Kasımpaşa
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Kasımpaşa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80