Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genk W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genk W 2-0 Gent W
Original prediction
Genk W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 53.8% | 43.4% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 23.9% | 27.6% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 22.3% | 29.1% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Genk W
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Genk W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Genk WLDLLW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Gent WLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Genk WGent W
0.0Attack33.3
44.4Defence0.0
11.1Form0.0
22.2Power14.9
1.77xG1.28