Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gent · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genk 1-1 Gent
Original prediction
Gent
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 45.0% | 35.6% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.1% | 25.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.45 | 26.9% | 39.1% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Gent
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Gent has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GenkDWDWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
GentWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GenkGent
80.0Attack66.7
46.7Defence86.7
53.3Form100.0
59.6Power86.7
1.46xG1.79