Genkvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Genk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Genk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
Genk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.8% | 48.2% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 22.3% | 24.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.9% | 27.3% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Genk
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Genk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GenkLDDWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Fortuna SittardWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GenkFortuna Sittard
77.8Attack62.5
48.1Defence45.8
51.9Form50.0
58.4Power52.2
2.72xG1.75