Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gefle IF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gefle IF 0-1 Vasalund
Original prediction
Gefle IF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.6% | 47.9% | 7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 24.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.0% | 28.0% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Gefle IF
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Gefle IF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Gefle IFWLWLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
VasalundLDLLL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Gefle IFVasalund
55.6Attack66.7
55.6Defence0.0
66.7Form25.0
61.0Power33.1
2.44xG1.45