Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gefle IF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gefle IF 3-3 Piteå
Original prediction
Gefle IF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.5% | 47.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 23.9% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.8% | 28.7% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Gefle IF
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Gefle IF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Gefle IFLLWLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PiteåDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Gefle IFPiteå
38.9Attack40.0
43.1Defence38.7
41.7Form29.3
43.4Power38.3
1.59xG1.24