Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gefle IF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gefle IF 3-1 Järfälla
Original prediction
Gefle IF
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 55.6% | 46.8% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.7% | 26.0% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 20.7% | 27.2% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Gefle IF
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Gefle IF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Gefle IFLDWWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JärfällaLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Gefle IFJärfälla
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
80.3Power50.0
2.01xG1.31