Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gefle IF · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gefle IF 0-2 Arlanda
Original prediction
Gefle IF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.2% | 44.3% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.1% | 25.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 35.7% | 30.0% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Gefle IF
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Gefle IF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Gefle IFWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArlandaLLWWL
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Gefle IFArlanda
83.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence55.6
100.0Form33.3
86.5Power49.2
2.06xG1.32