Gedania Gdanskvs
Stargard Szczeciński
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stargard Szczeciński · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gedania Gdansk 2-2 Stargard Szczeciński
Original prediction
Stargard Szczeciński
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 26.8% | 35.7% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.4% | 26.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 49.7% | 38.3% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Stargard Szczeciński
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Stargard Szczeciński has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60