Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GBK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 4-3 (7%), 5-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GBK 5-0 Kraft
Original prediction
GBK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.1% | 61.3% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.79 | 15.6% | 15.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 7.33 | 12.3% | 22.9% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.4–37%
- 3.5–26%
Predicted outcome
GBK
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
GBK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GBKWLDWD
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
KraftLWLLD
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
GBKKraft
82.5Attack82.5
34.9Defence11.1
57.1Form41.3
56.7Power44.0
4.50xG2.99