Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worthing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gateshead 1-2 Worthing
Original prediction
Worthing
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.40 | 14.3% | 15.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.90 | 18.7% | 19.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 67.0% | 65.5% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Worthing
Probability
65.5%
Model confidence
65.5%
Worthing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GatesheadLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 16 · avg 0.20/3.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
WorthingDWWWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GatesheadWorthing
18.2Attack60.6
24.2Defence48.5
12.1Form54.5
21.5Power57.2
0.81xG2.81