Gatesheadvs
Sutton Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sutton Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gateshead 0-1 Sutton Utd
Original prediction
Sutton Utd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 34.8% | 28.8% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.1% | 26.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 38.1% | 45.0% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Sutton Utd
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
45.0%
Sutton Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80