Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gateshead 1-6 Southend
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.28 | 17.3% | 14.9% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.3% | 19.4% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 60.5% | 65.8% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
65.8%
Model confidence
65.8%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GatesheadLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SouthendWDWDL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
GatesheadSouthend
20.8Attack70.8
41.7Defence54.2
16.7Form70.8
28.9Power67.0
0.84xG2.32