Gatesheadvs
Altrincham
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Altrincham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gateshead 0-1 Altrincham
Original prediction
Altrincham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.39 | 20.7% | 22.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.7% | 24.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.5% | 53.8% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Altrincham
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Altrincham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 16 · avg 0.40/3.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60