Garudayaksavs
Arema FC
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 10/17/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arema FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Garudayaksa 3-1 Arema FC
Original prediction
Arema FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.2% | 30.5% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 25.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.7% | 44.0% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Arema FC
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Arema FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80