Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Garliava 2-3 BFA
Original prediction
BFA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 28.9% | 33.3% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.3% | 27.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 43.8% | 39.0% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
BFA
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
BFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GarliavaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BFAWDWDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GarliavaBFA
34.8Attack50.7
63.6Defence53.6
33.3Form56.5
44.7Power54.5
1.01xG1.06