Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Babrungas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Garliava 0-1 Babrungas, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Garliava 0-1 Babrungas
Original prediction
Babrungas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.91 | 18.2% | 17.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.5% | 26.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 57.4% | 56.2% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Projected Score
Garliava 0–1 Babrungas
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Babrungas
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Babrungas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GarliavaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BabrungasDWLWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GarliavaBabrungas
38.3Attack58.7
63.3Defence88.9
36.7Form82.5
46.8Power77.3
0.62xG1.31