Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atmosfera · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Garliava 0-0 Atmosfera
Original prediction
Atmosfera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 30.5% | 34.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.4% | 26.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.0% | 39.5% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Atmosfera
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Atmosfera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GarliavaWLLLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtmosferaDLWLD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
GarliavaAtmosfera
38.7Attack51.4
58.7Defence54.2
33.3Form41.7
44.6Power49.2
1.13xG1.19