Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gareji · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gareji are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Samtredia are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Gareji hold a 14.5-point power-rating edge (63.9 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.0% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while Gareji holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gareji
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Gareji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40