GAP Connah S Quay FCvs
Porthmadog
COMPLETEDWales · Welsh Cup · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-0 Porthmadog
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 01:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.08 | 84.4% | 51.0% | -33.4 pts |
| Draw | 8.37 | 10.9% | 22.4% | 11.5 pts |
| Away | 19.07 | 4.8% | 26.6% | 21.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40