GAP Connah S Quay FCvs
Penybont
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Penybont
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 51.2% | 47.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 22.7% | 26.7% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80