GAP Connah S Quay FCvs
Haverfordwest County AFC
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Haverfordwest County AFC
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.4% | 69.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.67 | 19.3% | 17.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 6.77 | 13.3% | 13.3% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–013%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
69.1%
Model confidence
69.1%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20