GAP Connah S Quay FCvs
Cardiff MET
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GAP Connah S Quay FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Cardiff MET
Original prediction
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.3% | 60.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.5% | 20.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 5.20 | 17.2% | 19.5% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
GAP Connah S Quay FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60