Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Urartu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gandzasar 0-3 FC Urartu
Original prediction
FC Urartu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.68 | 24.5% | 26.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.8% | 23.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 49.7% | 50.2% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Urartu
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
FC Urartu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GandzasarLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC UrartuLLDWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarFC Urartu
38.1Attack42.9
19.0Defence52.4
14.3Form38.1
26.8Power45.6
1.21xG1.85