Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gandzasar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gandzasar 0-3 BKMA
Original prediction
Gandzasar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.4% | 43.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.7% | 26.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.9% | 30.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Gandzasar
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Gandzasar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GandzasarLLWLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BKMALLLDW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarBKMA
50.0Attack8.3
25.0Defence50.0
25.0Form8.3
35.2Power25.7
1.62xG1.26