Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gandzasar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gandzasar 0-2 Ararat
Original prediction
Gandzasar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.9% | 45.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 25.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.6% | 29.5% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Gandzasar
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
45.2%
Gandzasar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GandzasarLLLLW
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
AraratLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GandzasarArarat
44.4Attack16.7
16.7Defence27.8
16.7Form16.7
28.6Power24.6
1.89xG1.32