Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gambia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gambia 1-0 Somalia, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gambia 2-1 Somalia
Original prediction
Gambia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 82.2% | 54.1% | -28.0 pts |
| Draw | 7.03 | 13.0% | 25.5% | 12.5 pts |
| Away | 18.85 | 4.9% | 20.4% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.0 pts
Projected Score
Gambia 1–0 Somalia
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Gambia
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Gambia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GambiaLLDDW
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
SomaliaDDWWL
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GambiaSomalia
27.8Attack16.7
72.2Defence16.7
55.6Form0.0
54.9Power16.3
1.27xG0.69