Gamba Osakavs
Tokushima Vortis
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gamba Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gamba Osaka 5-0 Tokushima Vortis
Original prediction
Gamba Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.8% | 41.4% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.2% | 26.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.82 | 19.0% | 32.2% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Gamba Osaka
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Gamba Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80