Gamba Osakavs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 8/29/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gamba Osaka 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.90 | 19.1% | 26.1% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.13 | 22.7% | 24.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 58.3% | 49.4% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60