Galatasarayvs
Kocaelispor
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Galatasaray · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Galatasaray 1-0 Kocaelispor
Original prediction
Galatasaray
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 73.7% | 51.4% | -22.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.54 | 16.9% | 23.7% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 9.92 | 9.4% | 24.9% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Galatasaray
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Galatasaray has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80