Galatasarayvs
Kasımpaşa
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 10/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Galatasaray · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Galatasaray 3-1 Kasımpaşa
Original prediction
Galatasaray
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 75.3% | 48.9% | -26.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.03 | 15.6% | 24.7% | 9.1 pts |
| Away | 10.30 | 9.1% | 26.4% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Galatasaray
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Galatasaray has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00