Galatasarayvs
Fenerbahçe
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 10/26/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fenerbahçe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe
Original prediction
Fenerbahçe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.8% | 33.1% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.4% | 22.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.8% | 44.1% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Fenerbahçe
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Fenerbahçe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60