Galatasarayvs
Barcelona
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Galatasaray 1-4 Barcelona
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.71 | 11.0% | 25.3% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.78 | 14.1% | 23.6% | 9.5 pts |
| Away | 1.28 | 74.9% | 51.1% | -23.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 22 · GA 6 · avg 4.40/1.20