Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sirius · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gais 0-1 Sirius
Original prediction
Sirius
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.1% | 32.6% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.9% | 27.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 35.0% | 39.9% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sirius
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Sirius has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GaisWLDWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 3/5
SiriusDWWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GaisSirius
42.4Attack78.8
69.7Defence57.6
45.5Form77.3
52.5Power72.1
1.09xG1.40