Gainsborough Trinityvs
Ilkeston Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gainsborough Trinity · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gainsborough Trinity 3-1 Ilkeston Town
Original prediction
Gainsborough Trinity
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.4% | 66.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 19.8% | 19.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 6.52 | 13.8% | 14.4% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Gainsborough Trinity
Probability
66.1%
Model confidence
66.1%
Gainsborough Trinity has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 9 · avg 3.20/1.80
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60