Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samgurali · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Gagra are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Samgurali are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Samgurali hold a 7.6-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.4% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Samgurali holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Samgurali
Probability
35.4%
Model confidence
35.4%
Samgurali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 4.00/1.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40